World Trade Organisation cuts trade in half   Forecast for global trade growth in 2023

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has halved its forecast for global trade growth in 2023, predicting that the volume of goods traded will grow by 0.8 per cent this year, less than half the 1.7 per cent growth forecast in April.

In its latest trade forecast released on the 5th, the WTO explained that due to the continued downturn in global trade starting in the fourth quarter of 2022, WTO economists' forecasts for the growth of global goods trade in 2023 have been scaled back.

At the same time, the WTO expects global goods trade to grow by 3.3% in 2024, which is still roughly unchanged from its previous estimate. The WTO also expects real global gross domestic product (GDP) at market exchange rates to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2023 and 2.5 per cent in 2024.

Previously, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that global economic growth is expected to slow until the end of 2024, its July view being slightly more optimistic than its April forecast. The IMF expects global real GDP to grow by 3.0% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "The projected slowdown in trade in 2023 is a cause for concern as it will adversely affect the living standards of people around the world. The fragmentation of the global economy will only worsen these challenges, which is why WTO members must seize the opportunity to strengthen the global trade framework by avoiding protectionism and promoting a more resilient and inclusive global economy. Without a stable, open, predictable, rules-based and fair multilateral trading system, the global economy, especially poor countries, will struggle to recover."

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