Global economic growth is expected to slow

"Under the influence of inflationary pressures and geopolitical conflicts, the global economy in 2023 shows a 'weak recovery' trend, and economic growth momentum is seriously insufficient." Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Society of Policy Science, said.

According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing recently, the average global manufacturing PMI in 2023 is 48.5%, down 3.3 percentage points from 2022, and every month throughout the year is running below 50%, and the growth momentum of the global economy has slowed down compared with 2022.

By region, the average Asian manufacturing PMI in 2023 was 50.7%, the same as that in 2022, showing strong growth resilience; The average manufacturing PMI in Africa was 48.8%, down 1.9 percentage points from 2022; The average manufacturing PMI in the Americas and Europe was 47.5% and 46.3%, respectively, down 5.6 percentage points from 2022, and the continuous interest rate hike in Europe and the United States and the geopolitical conflict in Europe have a negative impact on the manufacturing industry.

The Chief Economist Outlook Report shows that while the global inflation picture has improved, the outlook for economic growth varies widely across regions. The economic outlook for South and East Asia and the Pacific remains positive, with moderate growth expected in 2024. The economies of the United States and regions such as Europe, the Middle East and North Africa will be weaker in 2024.

Based on the continued weakening of the momentum of the global economic recovery, the world's major institutions generally believe that the economic growth rate in 2024 will still be slightly lower than that in 2023. The uncertain impact of geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukraine crisis, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Red Sea crisis on global trade will continue to be a major factor plaguing the global economic recovery in 2024, and the stability of global industrial and supply chains will continue to be challenged.

Xu Hongcai also believes that the main factors affecting the global economy are mainly five aspects: first, when the European and American central banks will start to cut interest rates; Second, China's economic growth, especially the strength of macro policies to support economic growth; Third, the degree of economic and trade cooperation among countries; Fourth, when geopolitical conflicts will ease and end; Fifth, the promotion and application of digital technologies, especially the benefits of countries jointly building the Belt and Road Initiative and African countries.

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