The off-season market in the domestic market continued, the expectation of early recovery failed, the purchase price of seed cotton loosened and fell, and the sale price of storage continued to decline. In the weak atmosphere, the new cotton picking and selling are more than half, the supply increment, the downstream demand performance is poor, and the cotton market continues to fall.

Domestic cotton market: Northern Xinjiang cotton sale is coming to an end, southern Xinjiang picking and selling into the peak, the first half of the week Zheng cotton futures fell sharply, seed cotton purchase price with the price downward floating, as of 4, Xinjiang machine-picked seed cotton mainstream price maintained between 7.2-7.5 yuan/kg, part of the lower 7.1 yuan/kg. The price of hand-picked seed cotton is maintained between 8.2-8.4 yuan/kg. According to the feedback of several cotton processing enterprises in Xinjiang, since late October, the proportion of machine-picked cotton clothing points 36-38% has increased significantly, and the proportion of 40% and the proportion of cotton seed on the coat has decreased.

Reserve cotton transaction: October 30 to November 3, the 13th week of reserve cotton sales, a total of 100,000 tons of listed reserve cotton resources, a total transaction of 31,300 tons, a turnover rate of 31.29%. The average transaction price is 16,420 yuan/ton, and the discount price is 16,888 yuan/ton. Due to the recent decline in cotton prices and the downstream has not seen a rebound, the state storage cotton auction phenomenon is more, and the transaction price has also declined simultaneously.

International cotton market: This week, the ICE cotton market was affected by international macro factors, fell for three consecutive days, and the main contract fell below 80 cents after receiving a slight increase in exports, but it was still suppressed. The ICAC estimates that in 2023/24, global cotton production will be 25.42 million tons, up 3% year-on-year, consumption will be 23.35 million tons, down 0.43% year-on-year, and ending stocks will be up 10% year-on-year. The global stocks-to-consumption ratio is expected to be 100 per cent, meaning that stocks are roughly equivalent to 12 months 'worth of factory cotton.

Continued weak demand: Weak demand in the downstream textile market makes it more difficult to sell cotton yarn, the inventory of finished products increases, and enterprises generally lack confidence in the future market. The stock of pure cotton yarn increased, the air spinning and high count yarn continued to be thin, the conventional varieties compared to the average, and the phenomenon of low price dumping by traders increased. Entering the off-season, the demand side continued the weak market, the inventory of finished products in the industrial chain accelerated, the opening probability of cotton and cloth factories continued to decline, the boot continued to decline, and the raw material procurement demand of textile enterprises was weak.

Future market forecast: Although the current cotton farmers' reluctance to sell is high, but with the rapid decline in cotton prices, some cotton farmers have accepted the reality and accelerated the acquisition. With the gradual listing of new cotton, the domestic supply has turned loose, the state storage cotton auction phenomenon is more, and the market has expectations for the suspension of storage. Downstream demand recovery is slow, the textile industry is still depressed, cotton prices have not yet seen upward drive, is expected to continue the short-term cotton price shock trend, focusing on policy changes and demand.

Declaration: The content of this article is organized from the Internet, and the copyright belongs to the original author; If there is infringement, please inform in time and contact to delete.