"Gold three silver four" is the traditional peak season of the market, the orders of previous years have started in late February, after the start of the order, weaving companies will also buy raw materials with the arrival of the order, but this year the situation seems to be slightly different.

First, before the Spring Festival weaving enterprises to buy raw materials more than expected, years ago due to the low price of polyester filament and rising trend, stimulate the weaving enterprises to stock demand, which also led to weaving enterprises after the year overall polyester filament inventory is more adequate, and there is no urgent replenishment demand in the short term.

Second, due to the threat of tariffs after Trump's election, many overseas customers chose to rush to place orders in advance before the possible imposition of tariffs, which also led to the export data of foreign trade in November is very bright, and these orders in a sense also overdraft the demand after the year.

Third, the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs is still not settled, and the attitude to tariffs is changing too fast, which may produce greater risks, so many possible orders are still in a wait-and-see state, afraid to issue.

Therefore, after the beginning of the year, the demand for raw materials of weaving enterprises has not been fully released, and the polyester production and marketing have not shown an obvious market.

Upstream and downstream continue to game

At present, weaving end and filament end are in a new round of game.

Filament end, polyester filament industry concentration is high, leading enterprises are willing to support the price is strong, some differential models offer a narrow range, boosting the market atmosphere, polyester filament market temporarily continued stable trend. However, at present, the overall inventory level of the industry has risen to near 20 days, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry will be maintained at more than 85%, and the shipping pressure of enterprises is increasing.

At the weaving end, the raw materials hoarded before the festival make the current warehouse raw materials inventory sufficient, and the price of polyester filament has risen by 400-600 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, which exceeds the psychological expectations of some weaving enterprises, and the order has not been issued at this stage, so weaving enterprises are not willing to buy polyester filament.

Whether the filament end is under inventory pressure "will fall for a long time", or the weaving end accepts the raw materials at the current price to open a new round of replenishment market, "Jin SAN Yin four" orders may be a decisive factor.